Aktie · Pharma-AI · Stand 14.07.2026, 16:35
Freigegebenes ResearchRecursion Pharmaceuticals
- Zuletzt analysiert
- 14.07.2026, 16:35
- Marktdaten
- 15.07.2026, 11:07
Recursion OS must turn biological/chemical scale into better clinical probability and economics. The case improves if REC-4881 defines a registrational path, REC-1245/4539 show differentiated human data, partner milestones convert to cash, 2026 burn stays below 390 Mio. USD and material control weaknesses are remediated before the early-2028 runway forces financing.
- Kurzthese
- Q1 2026 collaboration revenue was 6,5 Mio.
- Portfolio-Rolle
- Spekulative klinische TechBio-Position; platform/partner optionality plus wholly owned pipeline, but no product revenue, high burn and control weaknesses demand milestone-sized exposure.
- Kaufzone
- 2,32 $ – 2,32 $
- Risiko
- Sehr hoch
Executive Summary
Der Case in 60 Sekunden
Q1 2026 collaboration revenue was 6,5 Mio. USD versus 14,7 Mio. USD; Recursion has no approved product sales. R&D/G&A fell to 87,9/34,6 Mio. USD, Net Loss was 117,5 Mio. USD and OCF minus 81,1 Mio. USD. Cash including restricted cash was 665,2 Mio. USD. Guidance of <390 Mio. USD 2026 operational burn supports runway into early 2028 without additional financing, but future capital is still expected. REC-4881 showed a Phase-2 signal with FDA engagement; REC-1245 early safety/PK and REC-4539 first dosing are not efficacy proof. Disclosure controls remained ineffective due to material weaknesses. At 3,30 USD market cap was 1,75 Mrd. USD. Scenarios: 0,8–1,3 / 2–3 / 5–8 / 12–18 USD. Keine Garantie oder persönliche Anlageempfehlung.
A validated AI-native discovery engine could improve target selection, cycle time and partner economics across many programs.
Clinical failure, no product revenue, milestone volatility, burn/dilution, integration complexity and ineffective controls can erase platform optionality.
Szenario-Matrix · FY2030 / 42–48 Monate
Was könnte der Modellbetrag in jedem Case bedeuten?
- Zielkorridor
- 1 $ – 1 $
- Veränderung zum Referenzkurs
- -76 % bis -61 %
- Aus 10.000 €
- 2.395 € – 3.892 €
Key trials fail, most liquidity is consumed and financing dilutes owners before a registrational asset exists.
Modellannahmen
- Bewertungsmethode
- Risk-adjusted cash/pipeline after burn and dilution
- Zeithorizont
- FY2030
- Clinical Programs with material rNPV
- 0
- FY2030 Net Cash
- 0–0,2 Mrd. USD
- Diluted Shares
- 650–800 Mio.
- Pipeline/Platform Equity Value
- 0,5–0,9 Mrd. USD
- Zielkorridor
- 2 $ – 3 $
- Veränderung zum Referenzkurs
- -40 % bis -10 %
- Aus 10.000 €
- 5.988 € – 8.982 €
Trials are mixed and partner milestones partially fund development, but no owned program is yet approval-ready.
Modellannahmen
- Bewertungsmethode
- Program rNPV plus residual platform and net cash
- Zeithorizont
- FY2030
- Late-stage Programs
- 0–1
- Partner Cash through FY2030
- 0,1–0,3 Mrd. USD
- Diluted Shares
- 600–750 Mio.
- Pipeline/Platform Equity Value
- 1,3–2,0 Mrd. USD
- Zielkorridor
- 5 $ – 8 $
- Veränderung zum Referenzkurs
- +50 % bis +140 %
- Aus 10.000 €
- 14.970 € – 23.952 €
At least one owned program de-risks and partnerships fund a meaningful portion of a declining burn profile.
Modellannahmen
- Bewertungsmethode
- Program rNPV plus validated platform value after dilution
- Zeithorizont
- FY2030
- Late-stage Programs
- 1–2
- FY2030 Annual Burn
- 0,15–0,25 Mrd. USD
- Diluted Shares
- 550–700 Mio.
- Pipeline/Platform Equity Value
- 3–5 Mrd. USD
- Zielkorridor
- 12 $ – 18 $
- Veränderung zum Referenzkurs
- +259 % bis +439 %
- Aus 10.000 €
- 35.928 € – 53.892 €
Several clinical wins validate repeatability, create high-value deals and sharply reduce reliance on dilutive capital.
Modellannahmen
- Bewertungsmethode
- Multi-program rNPV plus clinically validated platform value
- Zeithorizont
- FY2030
- Validated/Late-stage Programs
- 3–5
- Partner and Milestone Cash
- 0,5–1,0 Mrd. USD
- Diluted Shares
- 520–650 Mio.
- Pipeline/Platform Equity Value
- 7–11 Mrd. USD
Reine Szenariorechnung auf Basis des Referenzkurses, keine Prognose oder Anlageempfehlung. Historische Ausgangsdaten stammen aus den belegten Quellen; Zukunftswerte, Multiples und Wahrscheinlichkeiten sind ausdrücklich Analystenannahmen. Modellwert vor Kosten, Steuern und – bei Fremdwährungswerten – unter der vereinfachenden Annahme unveränderter Wechselkurse.
Upside-Treiber
Was verbessert den Case?
- Human Data
REC-4881/1245/4539 show durable efficacy, safety and dose response.
- Partner Economics
Milestones and new deals generate cash, not only headline potential.
- Controls/Runway
Weaknesses remediate and burn stays below guidance.
Invalidation
Was bricht den Case?
- Clinical
Priority programs fail efficacy, safety or FDA path.
- Platform
AI scale does not improve cycle time or hit rate.
- Capital
Runway shortens and dilution rises.
Monitoring
Als Nächstes beobachten
- Clinical Ledger
Enrollment, dose, response, durability, safety and regulatory feedback.
- Partner Ledger
Earned versus potential milestones and cash.
- Capital Ledger
OCF, burn, cash, SBC, shares and controls.
01 · Executive Summary
Clinical proof before platform valuation
Cash funds several readouts, but no approved-product revenue exists.Investment case and evidence are separated from forecasts.
No scenario is a guarantee.
02 · Investment Case
Recursion: investment case
Cash funds several readouts, but no approved-product revenue exists.The thesis is tested against explicit milestones.
Per-share value, not narrative progress, is the outcome metric.
03 · Geschäftsmodell
Revenue and value model
Collaborations, milestones and future drug economics; today revenue is not product demand.Recurring, milestone and one-time economics are separated.
Revenue quality matters as much as growth.
04 · Markt & Wettbewerb
Market structure
Biotech pipelines, pharma internal R&D and other TechBio platforms compete for capital and targets.Customer alternatives and procurement constraints are monitored.
A large addressable market does not guarantee share.
05 · Moat & Management
Moat and execution
Data, automation and models matter only if human outcomes improve.Moat requires repeatable customer or clinical evidence.
Monitoring-Kalender
Nächste Termine
Termine sind Prüfzeitpunkte für den Case, keine Handelssignale.
FDA/registrational path and efficacy maturity.
Less than 390 Mio. USD operational burn.
Evidence of effective controls.
Nachvollziehbarkeit
Quellen und Datenstand
5 Quellen · Analyse-Stand 14.07.2026, 16:35
- NasdaqRXRX market activity ↗Geprüft am 2026-07-14T08:52:24.000Z
- MacsInvestResearch- und Szenario-Methodik ↗Geprüft am 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z
- SECPrimärquelleRecursion Q1 2026 Form 10-Q ↗Geprüft am 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z
- RecursionPrimärquelleQ1 2026 Results ↗Geprüft am 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z
- RecursionPrimärquelle2026 Corporate Presentation ↗Geprüft am 2026-02-25T00:00:00.000Z